Youth, Religion and Democracy After the Arab Uprisings: Evidence from the Arab Barometer

T he Arab uprisings of 2011 left an indelible mark on the region. As Long-standing presidents fell in four countries, many wondered if a wave of democratization might be sweeping the region. This early optimism soon faded as countries as protests were violently suppressed in Bahrain and subsequently Libya, Syrian and Yemen fell into civil war. This narrative of the failure of the uprisings to yield substantial political reform overlooks an important period of political openness that was found in Tunisia and Egypt, the two countries where the protest movement began. From 2011 to 2013, both countries witnessed unprecedented periods of political freedom. For the first time, citizens in both countries experienced free and open elections, enjoyed a greater ability to speak freely, and watched as long-standing Islamist opposition groups formally entered the political sphere. Evidence from around the world shows that ordinary citizens are likely to respond to the changes in their political environment through a process of political learning. Thus, a critical question, particularly in the cases of Egypt and Tunisia is to what extent, if any, did the political changes as a result of the Arab uprisings change the attitudes of toward democracy and political Islam in the initial years after the uprisings? Has there been a shift in attitudes with citizens becoming more likely to support democracy or wanting a different role for religion in politics in response to these events? And, to what degree, if any, have changes in attitudes varied by country context? Although a watershed event of this nature may affect citizens of all ages, the focus of this research is on citizens ages 18-29 as existing evidence suggests that youths are most likely to engage in political learning since they are less likely than older generations to have fixed political and social preferences.